Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
