Peace Plans Set to be Presented to Russia Within Days, States Ukraine's President
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will present the terms to the Russian leadership.
Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain
After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.
Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.
Defense Assurances and Allied Backing
“We are counting on five documents. Several pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He stated that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.
On Monday, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.
Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”
However, they did not proposing these measures would constitute guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.
Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute
On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to forces of NATO member states operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”
The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the issue of land. One proposal involves Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.
American mediators, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard formations rather than the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.
“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.
Next Steps and Potential Outcomes
The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.
“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” said the president, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.
“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he added.
