Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
